Every figure names the body that published it and the period it covers. Last reconciled 2026-09-03.
Latest outturn
Residential transfers, nationwide: 72,583 units (+11.2% YoY) — Q1 2026, REIC. Units moved. The value of those transfers rose only 3.1% to THB 187.18bn — buyers are transacting at lower price points.
Value of residential transfers: THB 187.18bn (+3.1% YoY) — Q1 2026, REIC. Volume up 11.2% against value up 3.1% is the whole story of this market in one line.
Newly approved housing loans: +11.1% YoY — early 2026, REIC. Demand-side improvement, and the reason transfer volumes recovered.
Residential construction permits: −50.2% (halved) — early 2026, REIC. Developers are deliberately not building into unsold stock.
Condominium construction permits: −71.3% — early 2026, REIC. The sharpest supply contraction in the series, and a direct response to accumulated unsold condo stock.
Land allocation permits: −45.7% — early 2026, REIC. Landed-housing supply is being throttled too, not only condos.
Forecast
Residential transfers, full year (forecast): 312,814 units (−1.1%) — FY2026 forecast, REIC
Value of transfers, full year (forecast): THB 845.24bn (−2.3%) — FY2026 forecast, REIC
How to read that
Supply is being cut, hard
Condominium construction permits fell 71.3% and residential permits 50.2% in early 2026. This is not a collapse in confidence so much as inventory discipline: Bangkok ended 2024 with roughly 235,000 unsold condominium units, and developers are declining to add to it. Expect the supply overhang to shrink slowly rather than the market to seize up.
Volume is recovering; value is not
Transfers rose 11.2% by unit but only 3.1% by value in Q1 2026. Buyers are active at the affordable end and absent at the top of the mid-market. Anyone selling a mid-range Bangkok condominium is competing with a very large number of near-identical units.
The regions and the capital have decoupled
Bangkok carries the oversupply. Phuket, Surat Thani (Koh Samui), Prachuap Khiri Khan (Hua Hin) and the Eastern Economic Corridor are running their own cycles, driven by tourism, relocation and industrial investment rather than by Bangkok end-user demand.
Foreign demand has changed nationality, not size
Chinese buying has fallen sharply while Russian and Myanmar purchases have risen. Much of the new demand is relocation rather than speculation, which behaves differently: it is less price-sensitive on entry and much slower to resell.